The US Dollar has fallen again from what appeared to be a range-low in the previous month. The DXY Dollar index, (an index that measures the dollar’s strength compared to a basket of other currencies), dropped to a low of 90.8 from the previous bottoming out formation at around 93, to recover back to 92.2. This marks a loss of nearly 10% for the year for the greenback. Against the Thai baht, the US Dollar has leveled off but is still lower at 33.06 from 33.28 previously.
The British pound has had a volatile time but has built on gains from the previous high at 1.3220 to move up to a high of 1.3667 before settling at around the 1.3440 mark. Plenty of news has buffeted the currency around including the Bank Of England minutes, the Federal Reserve meeting and various Brexit activities. Against the Thai Baht the rise was no less broad based with the Pound moving from 42.73 to hit a high of 44.93 before resting at 44.63. Expect the spread at currency exchange booths to be wider due to continued volatility.
The USD/JPY cross rate reversed its fall from the recent downtrend, but only after hitting a low of 107.32, after which a strong period of Yen weakness ensued to push the cross rate to above 112.57 with a subsequent range of 111.80 to 112.20 being set. (When the Japanese Yen becomes less expensive, the more Yen can be bought with the dollar so the exchange rate moves up on Yen weakness). This move comes amid a re-ignition of the risk-on trade that saw global stock markets rise during the latter part of September. Against the Thai Baht the Yen fell from its range of 0.3003 to 0.3044 to sit at 0.295, its lowest level since December 2015.
The Russian ruble strengthened from 58.8 to the USD to move to 57.40. It is still far away from the 34 level seen 3 years ago but it appears to be slowly regaining ground. Against the Thai baht, the previous range of 0.556 to 0.562 over the last few weeks has been tested to the upside with the Ruble at one point fetching a high of 0.584 Thai Baht, before slipping back to 0.575 which still represents a reasonable gain.
There were several high profile bankers suggesting that the Euro would hit 1.20 to the USD by the middle of next year but it has already broken through this level and beyond to hit close to 1.21 before finding a footing following the German elections at around the 1.1790 to 1.1950 range. At the ECB, Mario Draghi’s comments were overall quite ambiguous but the currency markets reacted with a Euro buying binge nonetheless. Against the Thai baht the Euro put on a nice gain rising from 39.07 to hit a high of 40.02 before settling in the 39.10 to 39.67 range.
